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What can we expect in China in 2. Tit- for- tat moves on specific companies and sectors could easily escalate, with many multinationals’ global supply chains caught in the middle and consumers around the world facing product shortages and, when products are available, material price increases. China’s government could implement sweeping actions to sustain employment, restrict further capital outflows, and stimulate the domestic economy. Market- oriented restructuring and reform would be off the table. Economic nationalism, food and energy security, and social stability would be paramount. Sidebar. The Orr- acle: Gordon’s predictions for 2.

Provided geopolitical movement doesn’t derail his best laid predictions, Gordon Orr sees a year of slowing economic growth, headaches for multinationals.

But if globally we continue with something recognizably close to current trade arrangements, how will China fare this year? And, most important for a country that regards economic growth as of paramount importance (the centerpiece of China’s 1. GDP and household income in the decade to 2. GDP growth in the ballpark of 6.

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It is unlikely to come from exports—even ignoring potential protectionist moves in major export markets, there’s nothing that would significantly increase the world’s demand for Chinese goods. What about currency depreciation to make exports more competitive? That will be quickly offset by rising wages. Could growth come from consumers?

Will they feel good enough to increase spending another 8 to 1. Dvd Movie England Is Mine (2017). They will likely spend a lot less on buying property and fitting it out (because of government action to restrain prices and restrict access to mortgage financing) and less on cars if the current tax break expires. Moreover, real salary increases are likely to be the lowest since the Lehman crisis, and with house prices expected to be flat, there won’t be a repeat of last year’s wealth effect. The stimulation of e- commerce making goods available in smaller cities for the first time may help, but technology displacing jobs in services, not just manufacturing, certainly won’t. In fact, its impact is becoming more and more visible, leading more and more consumers to not only worry about losing their jobs but also actually see them eliminated. The impact of technology on creating jobs in fields such as medical and education services will benefit the privileged few with the skills to take advantage, but it will not offset the near- term job losses.

To some extent, absolutely yes. Private- sector corporate investment will accelerate this year, recovering from the low levels of 2.

Lower real interest rates will stimulate investment in productivity- enhancing technologies, such as robots and cloud- based services. And the government hasn’t run out of good (or bad) infrastructure projects to spend on—everything from urban transit (such as the $3. Beijing, Tianjin, and the neighboring province of Hebei) to intercity rail, water treatment, and 5. G projects. Collectively, these projects could deliver several percentage points of growth in a manner similar to a decade ago, but not without debt levels reaching 3. GDP by the end of the year.

In sum, I see 2. 01. In reality, it would have been embarrassing if the goals had not been reached, considering how modest they were. Taking out the promised 2. The more significant impact came as a result of restricting production by limiting the number of days that (mostly state- owned) mines could operate.

Coal production fell around 1. Great for mine owners, not so great for coal users.

At the time of writing, steel production is actually up for 2. The few announcements of industry consolidation have largely been the big merging with the big to get even bigger. The deals aren’t leading to reduced capacity or higher productivity, and unless steel plants are dismantled, there remains the possibility that latent capacity could return to the market. A slowdown in construction could see steel demand drop and actual overcapacity grow. Steel prices could fall back quickly, pushing the cash flow of many producers—whose balance sheets last year improved enough to stave off bankruptcy—into the negative again, depressing the confidence of consumers in cities dependent on these industries (especially in parts of northeast and northwest China) and creating a vicious cycle of lower consumer spending leading to declining local- business performance and redundancies. In these cities, property prices will be restrained by lack of demand.

Homeowners will also be frustrated by their inability to sell and decreases in their paper wealth. As local governments in these cities raise concerns with Beijing, the pressure on banks to keep funding the insolvent (and for the solvent to merge with the insolvent) will rise. It may not happen this year, but eventually jobs will be lost as many companies are simply too unproductive to compete. But that may only be after billions of dollars have been spent keeping them open for a few more years.

Ensuring compliance will be a significant headache, especially for multinationals, as what the laws mean in practice will only be defined over time. Take one example: the Anti- Unfair Competition Law, which overlaps with the Anti- Monopoly Law, had significant changes proposed in 2.

This is open to a wide interpretation, potentially allowing small retailers and suppliers to pursue claims against larger businesses that they deal with. The law also means employers become liable for bribes and inducements offered by their employees, even if they didn’t know bribes were being offered. Multinationals will complain, but these standards are little different from those they are required to follow in many other countries and which are part of corporate ethics commitments. Requirements on data localization, reporting cyber incidents to the government, the usage and sharing of personal information, and constraints on the publishing of any content online mean almost every multinational operating in China will have to change aspects of its operating model.

Maybe companies will need a network architecture that no longer backs up data outside China or a team within IT that simply reports network events to the Ministry, as required. Enterprises that publish content online in China may need to meet new local ownership requirements and understand the review and monitoring obligations that ensure content is deemed acceptable by the government. The law is creating lots of uncertainty and work, and even some larger enterprises will find themselves inadequately prepared and made examples of. Rather than simply being deported, last year saw more cases of foreign business executives being detained (most recently Australian casino employees)—and we’ll likely see more this year. Many corporations are lax with regard to cybersecurity: for example, the China Banking Regulatory Commission recently criticized several banks for allowing their employees to sell personal information without any corporate oversight. Chinese consumers tend to be quite relaxed about how their personal information is shared and used, partly because a large- scale leak has not yet happened.

Yet it’s easy to imagine global hackers entering the systems of a bank or an Internet company that handles payments and making the obtained data public. Public opinion could then change very quickly, leading to a heavy- handed government reaction and a major clampdown on how data is protected or sold. The impact on many leading Chinese companies could be that they invest much, much, more in cybersecurity. And some Chinese business leaders may be prosecuted for failing to protect their customer’s information sufficiently well. After a lull through mid- 2. Well over $1. 00 billion has left China this year for international acquisitions by Chinese businesses, with many acquirers paying over the odds in order to get their money out of the country.

This is despite the State Administration of Foreign Exchange frequently declining to approve renminbi conversions for deals in a timely fashion.

The Asahi Shimbun. With the Rio de Janeiro Paralympics approaching, The Asahi Shimbun has begun a series focusing on various challenged athletes.